Combat climate change by eliminating easy targets

Meaningful cuts to global warming could be quickly achieved by implementing readily achievable measures to reduce methane emissions, a KAUST computational modeling study has shown^[1].

Interventions include fixing leaks of the potent greenhouse gas from natural gas extraction facilities and landfill sites that would not only slow warming but also enhance air quality, bringing cascading benefits to health and the environment.

Global methane emissions are modest compared to those of carbon dioxide, but each ton of methane in the atmosphere traps tens of times more heat than a ton of CO₂. Today, methane causes about 30 percent of global warming, and its emissions have been rising rapidly.

There is some global traction on reducing methane emissions. Since 2021, more than 150 countries have signed up to the Global Methane Pledge (GMP), which targets anthropogenic methane emission reductions of at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. “The GMP offers a promising strategy to mitigate the accelerating global warming trend,” says study co-lead Evgeniya Predybaylo, a postdoc in the Climate and Livability Initiative at KAUST.

“The easily implemented and cost-effective methane abatement steps promoted by the GMP could buy time to tackle the harder problem of addressing CO₂ emissions,” Predybaylo adds. “This motivated us to use numerical modeling to evaluate the climate benefits of the GMP.”

The team conducted its analysis in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), using a coupled chemistry-climate model that was ideally suited to the task. “Our model is among the few capable of simulating the intricate chemical mechanisms in the atmosphere, including methane’s effects on climate and air quality,” Predybaylo says.

The modeling showed that full GMP implementation could prevent 0.2°C of global warming by 2050 and up to 0.3°C by the end of the century. “Our findings indicate a two- to three-decade lag in the full temperature response to methane emission reductions, with the GMP’s greatest impact occurring from mid-century onward,” Predybaylo says. With global mean air temperatures already increased by 1.5°C, this effect could be ideally timed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change while CO₂ emissions are underway.

“Our results show that delivering on the GMP provides a rare opportunity for fast, tangible climate benefit,” says Matthew McCabe, director of KAUST’s Climate and Livability Initiative. “Our findings can help reinforce the urgency of cutting methane emissions,” he adds. “Even with a lag in full climate response, every year of early action matters.”

The atmospheric modeling also showed that reducing anthropogenic methane emissions would enhance air quality by reducing the formation of near-surface ozone. “This reduction in ozone would yield important co-benefits, including improved human health through reducing respiratory issues and increased agricultural yields by minimizing crop damage,” Predybaylo says.

The team’s next steps will include leveraging new technologies to support global methane abatement efforts. “There have been recent and rapid advances in our capacity to monitor methane from space, with several countries launching satellite missions,” McCabe says. “Working with local and international collaborators, we are exploring how integrating satellite observations with modeling can help to better track progress and support methane mitigation efforts in real-time.”